The chance of reaching multiplier x in Aviator is 0.97 divided by x
At 2x that is 48.5% of rounds. At 5x it is 19.4%. At 10x it is 9.7%. Multiply any of those by the payout and you get 0.97 every time, which is the whole reason no cash-out point is better than another.
Verified 2026-08-30
The table people actually want
- 1.20x
- about 81% of rounds
- 1.50x
- about 65%
- 2.00x
- about 48.5%
- 3.00x
- about 32%
- 5.00x
- about 19.4%
- 10.0x
- about 9.7%
- 20.0x
- about 4.9%
- 100x
- about 1%
These are long-run frequencies, not guarantees about your next twenty rounds. Short sessions vary enormously, which is exactly what makes the game feel beatable and what keeps the pattern-spotting industry in business.
- Reaches 2.00×
- 48.5% of rounds
- Roughly
- 5 in every 10 rounds
- Expected return
- 97% of stake, at every multiplier
The last row is the part nobody advertises. Cashing out early or late changes how often you win, not what you get back over time. There is no multiplier that beats the 3% house edge, which is why no predictor can work.
Why the expected return is flat
Take 5x. You reach it 19.4% of the time and get five times your stake when you do. 0.194 times 5 is 0.97. Take 1.5x: 64.7% of the time, 1.5 times the stake. 0.647 times 1.5 is 0.97. Every row in the table works out the same, which is what a fixed return to player means.
What actually changes when you pick a multiplier
- Variance. Low multipliers win often and small, high ones rarely and large.
- How long a fixed bankroll lasts, which is a function of variance rather than return.
- How it feels, which is the only thing that genuinely differs.
If you want a session to last, cash out low. If you want a small chance of a large number, cash out high. Neither changes what the game returns, and any page telling you one of them does is either wrong or selling something.
Common questions
What are the odds of Aviator reaching 2x?
About 48.5% of rounds, which is 0.97 divided by 2.
Which multiplier gives the best value?
None. Expected return is 97% at every multiplier because probability and payout move in exact opposition.
Do low multipliers reduce the house edge?
No. They reduce variance. The edge stays at 3% of everything staked.